🔵 As Warner Music eyes up a Believe buy, all eyes must turn to trade bodies

The value of all trade representation is about to be put to the test

In recent months, I’ve written a fair bit about how the indie community needs to come together to protect its interests. In doing that, I’ve certainly expressed sentiments that just stopped short of questioning the value of trade bodies, but certainly wondered where they had collectively been when various important acquisitions had transpired.

If I was tip-toeing around the issue before, I feel we’re at a point where any such subtlety is now pointless. So, I’ll be blunt: right now, it feels like we have too many trade bodies, most of whom cannot agree on anything, and it is damaging the entire independent ecosystem. They are fiddling while Rome burns, and this has to stop if any kind of thriving ecosystem is to survive.

I feel a case in point to reflect this came in a discussion with some colleagues earlier, regarding the news that Warner Music is eyeing up a bid for Believe, arguably one of the largest indie label groups (if not the largest now?). One colleague opined that the case for monopolies was that - as we are seeing with Universal and its TikTok battle - those companies can actually do something that causes genuine impact and damage to the massive tech companies who continue to devalue music.

The conclusion in the discussion was that worryingly, he might have a point. Why? Because we have reached a point where it feels like trade bodies are now too many in number, splintered across all manner of disciplines and sub-sets within the music industry, as to be of any use to anyone.

AI is a perfect case in point. Every trade body is keen to issue its own statement on AI, and most of the time, it is disagreeing with another trade body that has issued its statement. Of course, whilst all this happens, tech companies just stand by, likely laughing at the ridiculous levels of in-fighting amongst the music industry. Little progress gets made and, as ever, it might be down to the majors to use their weight to force changes that wind up benefitting all interested music industry parties at the same time.

One might argue that this works fine - until those majors are looking at moving further into the indie ecosystem.

Today’s news regarding Warners then, is a wake-up call to these trade bodies. We arguably need less of them, and we need more power among a smaller number. From a bystander’s point of view, anything less is just pointless now.

I sincerely hope that Warner’s ambitions will be scotched - and as MBW points out in its article, that is quite likely as the other consortium looking to acquire the business also happen to be fairly large shareholders in Believe - but either way, this should be a wake-up call to all trade bodies to question whether they are genuinely capable of coming together and forming any kind of alliance that counts. If they are not, their existence is largely moot.

(And before someone points it out: I am aware of top-level bodies, but even in those cases they have serious omissions in terms of other huge trade bodies, rendering the exercise often a little…. compromised.)

Universal has continued to buy up various corners of the indie world. However Warner Music making a move on Believe would be a serious problem. Someone once remarked to me that within about eight years, Believe would be around the same size as Warner such that it would essentially be a new, fourth major. I feel that point to be correct, but this only illustrates the implication of Warner and Believe joining forces.

Let’s hope it does not happen - but if it does, let’s also hope the trade bodies can come together to actually deliver sufficient clout to, at the very least, ensure this deal does not proceed without serious scrutiny.

Have a great evening,

D.

📖 reading Eamonn Forde’s “1999: The Year The Music Industry Lost Control”. I’ve been looking forward to this for some time, as I was at Sony Music during that year (and actually am quoted in the book a few times, replete with salty language, sorry Mum!). This is one hell of a tale to tell though, and Eamonn has already proven with his previous two books that he’s a fantastic author. Grab your copy now, and thank me later.

📺 watching “"Somewhere in Detroit": Underground Resistance, Submerge, Techno and the Detroit Way”. I love that Roland commissioned this short film; it is a story that warrants a full documentary. More of this please.

🤖 playing with Lens, the web3 social protocol. I still maintain there is something really compelling in this space. As we talk about the value of music, I find great comfort in there being audiences happily prepared to buy music, right from the social posts they are contained in. And, being blunt, this kind of social site leaves all others for dust right now. You can sell direct from posts, control all manner of fan-gating… it’s brilliant.

---

Stories from the Music Industry:

That mystery company interested in buying Believe? It’s Warner Music Group.

To be clear: Warner has not yet made an offer. It’s begun a discussion with members of Believe’s board who aren’t compromised by the Ladegaillerie consortium’s approach (this group of directors is described as Believe’s ‘Ad-hoc Committee’). Warner has confirmed that it has requested access to a “limited list of key due diligence information” from Believe, “with a view to possibly submitting a formal offer relating to the transaction”.

👆🏻Hot take: it is entirely possible this may go nowhere (based on the comments in the article above), but nonetheless, this is a moment where the power of trade bodies - and particularly their means to act as one - will be sorely tested.

TikTok’s next licensing headache is the expiry of its NMPA deal

Come 30 April, TikTok may be forced to remove another swathe of recordings written or co-written by songwriters signed to NMPA members. NMPA boss David Israelite talked to Music Ally about TikTok in an interview earlier this week. “It does feel like Groundhog Day,” said Israelite, in reference to TikTok’s dispute with UMG “What YouTube and many other social media-type platforms discovered over time was that music was extremely important to their business model and, as their business model changes, oftentimes they need the music industry to be their partner

👆🏻Hot take: I am very curious to see if this is the start of a snowball effect on all licensed music being pulled from TikTok. This is where unity and direct action among trade bodies would be so valuable.

Spotify will show pricing options outside its iOS app in the EU — if Apple lets it

Spotify is taking full advantage of this ruling. If Apple approves the change, Spotify will be able to provide iOS users in the EU with information about the prices of its Premium subscriptions as well as the different features they offer. It will also include links that point users to its website to buy the subscriptions they want.

👆🏻Hot take: it was inevitable that someone tests the boundaries of Apple’s newly censured position around its App Store policies. As the Epic example (below) is showing though, Apple is certainly not holding back on trying to hobble any attempt to find success by routing around its own default policies.

Twitter’s music label legal trouble might have legs

The lawsuit alleges that X “breeds massive copyright infringement that harms music creators” by failing to take action against posts containing copyrighted music. Copyright issues on X have been a problem even before Elon Musk’s takeover, as the lawsuit cites that the NMPA began sending infringement notices to Twitter “on a weekly basis” in December 2021.

👆🏻Hot take: what will be interesting to watch here is the degree to which X just ducks the whole issue wherever it can. At some point, I can’t help but think the company will finally be held to account (be it this lawsuit or various others) and that in turn might threaten its future.

Spotify to increase subscription prices in France to ‘offset’ new music streaming tax

Spotify had also started “disinvesting” in France, pulling support for two music festivals in a sign of protest. Most recently, in a blog post published today, Spotify said: “While we worked very hard to encourage the government to avoid adding this tax, unfortunately, they decided to move forward.”

👆🏻Hot take: a petulant move from Spotify here, though not a shock. I think at the heart of the problem is an absolute conviction on Spotify’s part that its payout system is fair and reasonable.

JKBX starts selling music royalty shares with the SEC’s approval

“We said from day one that we wanted to go about this the right way. While getting regulatory approval took a bit longer than planned, JKBX is open for business now, and we can’t wait for music fans to make music rights the number one alternative asset in the market,” said CEO Scott Cohen.

👆🏻Hot take: I see JKBX as being like eToro, in that it is opening up accessible means to buy and sell shares in royalties. That is not a bad thing if it is democratising this space.

Music creation platform Splice unveils new mobile app experience, powered by AI technology

Splice Mobile, now available on iOS and Android, merges the company’s sample library with artificial intelligence-powered ‘Create’ technology, the company said in a press release on Wednesday (March 6). The app lets users access an expansive library boasting over 300 instruments across 140 unique genres. The app also boasts a range of features, including the ability to curate sounds into personalized collections, and create multi-layered compositions with up to eight instruments.

👆🏻Hot take: this is an interesting direction that Splice is pushing in. Generally, mobile music creation is not a heavily-used area by creators. Tablets like the iPad, yes, but not mobile phones. Could Splice lead a charge to change that? I’m curious to see.

---

Notable stories from the world of tech:

TikTok is urging users to call Congress about a looming ban

TikTok sent users in the US a push notification on Wednesday, warning that “Congress is planning a total ban of TikTok” that would “[strip] 170 million Americans of their Constitutional right to free expression.” The page says that a ban would “damage millions of businesses, destroy the livelihoods of countless creators across the country, and deny artists an audience.”

👆🏻Hot take: a bold move here, but one I’d imagine will only rile Congress all the more.

Apple kills Epic’s iOS game store plans over App Store criticism

In a blog post published today, the company shared a letter sent by Apple’s lawyers, which called Epic “verifiably untrustworthy” and said Apple does not believe that Epic will comply with its contractual commitments under its developer agreement. “Please be advised that Apple has, effective immediately, terminated the Developer Program membership of Epic Games Sweden AB,” the letter — which is dated March 2nd — states.

👆🏻Hot take: this is certainly getting ugly now, with Apple seeming positively vengeful against Epic at this point. Expect this to run and run.

---

Need something else to read? Here you go:

11 Terrifying Urban Legends That Turned Out to Be True

Urban legends often come with a dose of skepticism. But sometimes, these stories turn out to be true.

👆🏻Hot take: some of these are truly bizarre - and mildly frightening.

How caregivers are using smart tech to help aging parents

Smart home devices can offer independence, safety, and companionship.

👆🏻Hot take: good to have a positive tech story, detailing how smart tech (trackers, home assistants etc) are helping the elderly and particularly those struggling with dementia etc.

---

Exit Notes:

• Why not follow Motive Unknown on Instagram? It’s the best way to see what we’re working on - such as the IDLES album that is #1 this week 😁 💪🏻

• Huge thanks to both

  Bass, Mids, Tops and the Rest
  and
  Zen Sounds with Stephan Kunze
  for recommending Network Notes! I heartily recommend subscribing to both if you can.

---