🔵 Is a legendary, globally-known indie about to sell up to a major?

Rumours abound... but there's a point here most are missing

Over the last few days, I’ve had some emails that all asked me much the same thing:

”Hey Darren - have you heard about [REDACTED - INDIE LABEL] selling to [REDACTED - MAJOR LABEL]? Only people are telling me it’s happening…”

That kind of thing.

I’m not here to name the label or even start the whole gossip cycle around this. If - and it’s an if - this deal goes through, then press will run and everyone will know soon enough.

I did have a few thoughts though, so figured I would share them here.

We need to get used to indies selling up to majors

An unpopular view, maybe, but increasingly I think where larger indies are concerned, about the only companies who could afford them are either majors, or the kind of Blackstone-esque investment vehicles we see hoovering up catalogue. The point of difference determining which makes the purchase, I suspect, is whether the label wishes to remain active and current. If yes, sell to a major. If not, sell to Blackstone or someone like that.

As I talked about in my post about succession plans for indies though, there’s an awkward truth here which is that many of the bigger, better-known indies are hitting an age where their respective owners might well be looking to exit for some much-earned retirement, and so will be looking for a sale.

So this is not the first sale, but it won’t be the last either. It will keep happening because the only businesses that can afford to buy large indies are major labels or finance/investment houses.

Furthermore, as someone pointed out in the comments section on another edition of Network Notes, labels like Def Jam and Motown all started as indies, before moving into major label ownership. None of this is a new development; quite the opposite, it’s a logical end point if you look at history.

Now is a great time to sell up

Here’s another awkward truth: now is arguably a peak moment in which to sell your label, if you’re looking to go down that path. Streaming is starting to flatten out, and we’re on the cusp of a slightly more uncertain period relative to income streams. To most investors however, there is still huge potential in music as an asset class, and so it remains highly investable.

For that reason then, if one were looking to make an exit, now would be arguably the best time to do that. I certainly would if I were in that position.

All power to those selling up

I think in general there has been a view that those selling up are in some way “betraying the scene”. That’s just not a fair position to take. Bluntly: if someone has put 30+ years into the indie scene, busting their ass the entire time, we have no right to judge any decision to exit. Per previous comments, I only take an issue when people sell up to a major and try and gaslight us that it’s great for indie artists. Please don’t do that, it’s a ridiculous position to hold.

This all misses a more important point

Ultimately, this all puts the spotlight on the existing indies who are representing a larger share over that overall market.

The problem is that this ignores where the real issue lies; namely, in the fact that we’re simply not seeing new indie labels come through at all. By “come through”, what I really mean is “grow, become stable, and shape up to be a long-term prospect in the manner of an XL, Domino, Warp etc”.

I was chatting with someone recently who told me that they’d had it confirmed by one of the large label services companies that smaller indie labels are folding left, right and centre. They simply cannot break through now, at a time where 2025 has produced the fewest new hit songs in US history. New music is arguably enduring its lowest ebb yet, all the while being hidden behind headlines claiming music is in great shape when an ever-increasing percentage of that comes from catalogue plays.

No doubt someone might argue that labels are moribund as a concept, and that indie artists can simply go direct to market now. There is undoubtedly an element of truth to that, but my concern remains that when you have a massive, nebulous volume of artists out there with no proper representation, you have a serious issue relative to the market only moving in directions that work for major labels and large catalogue holders.

Culture is flattening out. We are becoming a “constant now” where time isn’t passing relative to trends and bands and what’s new.

So yes, another large indie might soon sell up. If it sells to who I’m hearing, I’d actually argue it might be in great hands, dependent on a few key conditions. Really though, looking at who is exiting is to be looking in the wrong place.

This is not about who is exiting the market; it is about the fact that those entering it are failing, and we’re not seeing new labels rising up.

Arguably that even presents a time bomb for the majors, whose entire revenue stream now hangs on leeching off of the indie scene. The Orchard: indie. AWAL: indie. Virgin Music: indie (via InGrooves, MTheory, PIAS etc). The list goes on. All the majors can do is attempt to buy up those businesses holding market share among the independent sector.

But when there are none of those left because nothing new is coming through, well… what then?

Have a great evening,

D.


🎶 Listening to DJ Haram’s “Beside Myself”. Hyperdub are absolutely on fire at the moment, with this album following not long after aya’s incredible “Hexed!” LP. What I find interesting is that in both cases, I was alerted to the albums via great journalism, and that cumulative effect where multiple trusted sources are all raving about it. Another thought I can’t get out of my head: in an age of AI casually shitting out ersatz versions of other people’s work, I’d argue albums like this prove that there’s no way in hell AI could come up with this music.

📺 Watching all of the videos from Rick Beato, Justin Hawkins, Danny Sapko and Rhett Shull about how copyright claims are ruining their ability to post videos talking about music they love (or hate). Granted, Beato has a solution (basically a lawyer on call 24/7, so hardly an affordable one for most) but I think this is another one of those moments where the very culture that celebrates music is being attacked by the companies who directly benefit from that celebration (i.e. the labels). Granted I think the issue is a slightly more complex one than any of the creators make it out to be, but even so, it highlights a real problem here that has the capacity to create a chilling effect on a part of modern music culture - ie. YouTubers talking about it.

📖 Reading Bas Grasmayer’s “30 Days of Vibe Coding” article on his Calm & Fluffy Substack. I really like where Bas has been going with his new newsletter; inspiring work, but also informed by a broader awareness of the pervasive nature of tech, along with a desire to redress that balance so that one can find those places where tech is genuinely adding something to your life, rather than being like a buzzing fly or worse, some kind of grim addiction. Eminently worth signing up for!

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Other items of note…

• Hyped to confirm I will be doing a keynote and moderating a panel at the brand new Music Frontiers event in Berlin, which takes place September 4th & 5th. This is an evolution of the very excellent Music Tech event I attended last year, so I can’t wait to head back. I highly recommend it as an event, not least because attendees have more range than I’ve seen at many conferences. This was where I met the very excellent Will Freeman last year, which in turn led to our panel at the Games & Music conference in Tileyard earlier in the year. See you there!

• Motive Unknown’s socials have had a do-over! We’re switching up things a little there, so will talking a little more about strategies as well as who we’re working with, as well as featuring more content from our lovely team too. Check our Insta page here, or follow us on LinkedIn for more there too.

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