šµ Primary Wave/Kobalt. Concord/BMG. Which will be the next big consolidation moment?
The bigger companies are merging or selling - but is that a bad thing?
Recently, news emerged that Primary Wave was in advanced talks to acquire Kobalt. Both exist as significant players in the independent publishing landscape, so a move like this is obviously massively significant. I have even seen speculation that it may draw attention from competition regulators, although given the new company would still be smaller than the major publishing empires, I suspect that unlikely.
Alongside this, it feels like the industryās worst kept secret that Concord and BMG are looking at some kind of consolidation. Depending on who I speak to, that may be either a merger or an acquisition. My sources suggest the acquisition part would be BMG buying Concord, but it is equally plausible that the reverse may be the case.
Clearly then, 2026 is going to be The Year of Consolidation. At first blush, I would imagine most may perceive this as broadly negative.
Personally, I am increasingly drawing the opposite conclusion. In much the same way as I welcomed Concordās acquisition of Ninja Tune, on the basis it was at least keeping the legendary indie label out of the hands of the majors, I feel these consolidations are actually a beneficial move for the marketplace.
A harsh truth I feel we must all accept is that market dynamics with the likes of Universal, Sony and Warner will be much greater if there are substantially larger entities in the marketplace. These consolidations create larger independent power players, and those stand a far greater chance of driving more competition, ensuring the likes of Universal is not allowed to continue with its acquisitions and monopoly-baiting investments unchallenged. (And I mean economically challenged, rather than via trade bodies through objections.)
Granted, it may not have the veneer of cool that a multitude of smaller indies would possess, but at this point you require either a phenomenally well-coordinated network of indies, or a few much, much bigger players to assert any kind of competitive response to the majors. I do not feel the former has come to pass, and so right now the latter feels like the more impactful route.
I think something else to consider is the primary motivations of these businesses. At first glance, one might consider various companies to have very similar constructs as regards size, interests, and even investors. However, what is less clear is the objectives of these investors relative to the end goal for the business. Put simply, some investors may be in it for a quick exit within a couple of years at a significantly greater sales price, whilst others may be in this for annual returns and a long haul.
That difference is not something to dismiss quickly. Success in business and a desire to maintain independence are not mutually exclusive bedfellows. With that in mind, then I feel it plausible - though not provable - that some of these companies are at least more invested in the arts and culture side of music than the immediate exit within a couple of years at 10x growth.
For now, though, we should continue to watch what happens here. These are also not the only companies whose names I see mentioned relative to sales and exits. Whilst musicās value as an asset class remains so high, I would imagine we will continue to see further sales happen. Some will be great developments, perhaps others less so. For the time being, though, it feels like this level of consolidation is actually a good thing for the marketplace.
Could I be wrong on that? Absolutely, but letās wait and see. For now, I view this as welcome news.
Have a great day,
D.
š¶ Listening to āIIā by Paperclip Minimiser. John Howes is something of a genius, at least from where Iām sat. Responsible for the formidable Strokes app/plugin, he is the kind of mind that, were it not obsessive about music, would likely be working at NASA. This album, released on US label Peak Oil, compiles together tracks Howes made almost entirely using his own self-built software - Strokes being one. The end results are formidable: excursions in beats, bass and texture, and they make for a compelling listen indeed. Fantastic stuff - check it out.
šŗ Watching āWhite Lotus season 3ā. Granted Iām exceptionally late to this one, but frankly thereās too much TV to watch these days, and somethingās got to wait. Iād seen quite a few mixed reviews about this season, but I have to say Iāve been really enjoying it. Although if youāve seen it, youāll know what Iām referring to when I say THAT scene with the brothers: ewwwwwww!
š Reading āThe Chronicles of DOOM: Unravelling Rapās Masked Iconoclastā by SH Fernando Jr. To say Iāve enjoyed reading this book would be a massive understatement. I didnāt think a book about MF DOOM would turn into such a page-turner, and yet it absolutely did. Chock full of history, not to mention all manner of incredible insights. This feels like the definitive work about one of hip-hopās most mysterious figures. Eminently worth your time.
Gleefully accepting music recommendations!
I do really enjoy getting suggestions for either existing music or forthcoming releases to check out. So, if thereās something you think I might like, do feel free to get in touch. Always keen to hear the weird and wonderful things going on out there. And, with 6000+ subscribers, Iām happy to spread word on things Iām loving too.