🔵 The music industry's stasis problem

AI aside, evolution in the music industry is grinding to a halt

Hi there -

Last week I asked a fellow industry commentator & writer if they were struggling to find things to write about. It’s something I’ve really struggled with of late: I simply don’t think there’s much to comment on, as nothing of real note is happening outside of AI that I feel warrants writing about.

My friend replied that he too had cut down the frequency of his writing, but then repeated something he’d said the day before to someone else, namely that “when you look beyond AI and innovations around royalty collections, the core industry is in stasis mode”.

That was last week, and since then that comment has really been stuck, circling in my mind, not least because I think he’s absolutely correct. Put AI to one side, and the music industry has somehow moved into a kind of hibernation state. Things are not evolving. Innovation is slowing down again (or getting entirely funnelled in the direction of AI). The landscape itself is looking static and oddly uninspiring.

I think the bigger issue for me is that, if we take the above assertion to be correct (and I do), it suggests another problem, namely that as the music industry fails to evolve, things continue to fall away. Without new developments to keep moving forward with, the market is actually starting to rot.

Gatekeepers and tastemakers might a decent case in point: they have all been largely removed now, with a few plucky sites existing, but in general most key influencers really drifting into obscurity (the odd Fantano here and there notwithstanding).

Ditto the small live scenes around the world; most are facing harder times than ever, with venues closing all over the place, removing that crucial “leg up” circuit that provides bands on the rise with their spaces to win over new fans.

I opined most of the above to a colleague, who like me has been in this game for decades now. He responded that I was possibly having too rose-tinted a view of the “good old days”, and that those years where Radio 1 or iTunes were the kingmakers were nowhere near as good as I remembered them to be.

My response was that it’s possible he had a point, but that equally I wonder if, in hindsight, we didn’t know what we had until it was gone. At least those spaces were managed by human beings; now most of the recommendation work is farmed off to algorithmic playlists.

Right now though, the victory surely lies in recognising the static nature of things, and working to change that. I tire of moaning about the state of the industry; it’s a fruitless endeavour unless you’re actually prepared to effect change. So what can we do?

Perhaps one route forward might lie in creating new spaces to engage fans with material before you hit the veritable scrum for attention that is the likes of Spotify and co. Maybe another is for artists to just reject streaming altogether, as it’s now common knowledge that for all but the top artists, it’s a lousy way to earn a living.

In this context, AI feels like something of a distraction. It is plausible it could be some kind of existential threat, but I’m sceptical. I still feel Udio and co are the equivalent of the music you hear when you open a novelty greeting card; fine for specific daft use cases, but that’s about it. Beyond that, assistive AI will doubtless help musicians and creators make far better works, and that’s fine.

Really though, none of that speaks to the broader landscape. AI has got nothing to offer community growth, direct, high-value connection to fans and all that comes with that. Doubtless some startup will try to claim otherwise, but I’d argue anything operating in that space is doomed to fail. People have seen AI, and decided that anything solely created using it has all the value and durability of toilet paper.

So let’s all think about what could come next, and how that artist/fan relationship can evolve. That, at the end of the day is all that this boils down to: the artists and their fans. Those of us working in this space are just the faceless ones in the middle further enabling those relationships, which is as it should be. But more must be done, because we need music to get back to being a fertile space providing new ways to connect and celebrate art.

After all, that’s what we’re dealing with here: art, and art has been devalued for too long now. Whenever I’ve spoken on panels, I have reminded people that to those of us in the industry, this is another campaign, another band, another thing to work on. To the fans, however, this is music to party to, music to drink or smoke weed to, music to get laid to, music to drive insanely fast to, music to drag you out of the depths of your lowest ebbs, music to soundtrack your new love… I could go on ad infinitum. It is something capable of soundtracking the most pivotal moments in our lives, sticking in our memory for as long as we draw breath.

Never forget that, and never undervalue that. Treasure what art is and let’s work to move the industry that supports that forward now.

Have a great evening,

D.

🎶 listening to “Away/Towards” by Hookworms. I’m not sure I could be much later to this lot, who sound like Hawkwind’s Space Ritual-era updated to 20-something. They’re a band I need to see live, as I’d imagine tracks like this absolutely transform in that setting. Glorious - music that makes you want to drive very fast late at night.

📺 watching “Using This iPod For 30 Days Changed My Life” on YouTube. I’m a little wary when it comes to YouTubers talking up rejecting streaming for an iPod, but this is video is actually a great, thoughtful take on why having a finite, offline music library to enjoy deepens connection with the music itself, and the impact that has. It’s a great watch.

🤖 playing with Audio Trip on the Meta Quest 3. I got back into all things VR recently as part of a growing trend: VR fitness. As part of that though, I’ve gotten immersed into the music-based games like Beat Saber and Audio Trip, and they’re fantastic fun. Also a fine way to warm down after a serious VR boxing session. No, seriously!

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Stories from the Music Industry:

Report: Downtown Music Holdings in talks over possible sale

The latest independent music company reportedly up for sale is Downtown Music Holdings, with private-equity firms and “at least one major music company” hovering. That quote comes from Billboard’s report breaking the news. It suggested that the board of Downtown Music Holdings, whose subsidiaries include CD Baby and FUGA, has held talks with those potential suitors. The spur appears to be the desire of one of its longtime investors, the family of late New Zealand business tycoon Douglas Myers, wish to exit.

👆🏻Hot take: I think, as ever, the issue here is simply who Downtown might fall into the hands of. If it is a private equity firm, I doubt much would change. If one of the majors buys it, on the other hand, that could be a huge problem for industry landscape.

Record labels have sent ‘hundreds of thousands’ of copyright infringement notices to Verizon. Now they’re suing the internet provider for over $2bn

According to the labels’ joint lawsuit, Verizon “provides its high-speed service to a massive community of online pirates, who it knows repeatedly use that service to infringe Plaintiffs’ copyrights”. The labels claim further that “over the past few years alone,” they have issued “hundreds of thousands of copyright infringement notices” to Verizon.

👆🏻Hot take: what is fascinating to me about this is that it is a tacit admission that piracy is either still a problem, or has become a growing one. If the latter, I wonder what that might infer as to how people are consuming music now. More grist to the “rejection of streaming” mill maybe?

Music sales are growing faster than games and video in the UK

The topline: the value of music sales grew by 7.9% in the first half of 2024 in the UK, compared to 5.4% growth for video sales, and a startling 29.4% decline in game sales. Caveat one: this really is ‘sales’ for music: vinyl, CD and download sales, but not streaming subscriptions or advertising revenue. The same applies for video: streaming services aren’t included in this data. Caveat two: music is still the smallest of the three sectors: its £163.8m of sales in the first half of this year compares to £213.7m for video and £348.6m for games.

👆🏻Hot take: I think “Caveat three” here should surely be the general distortion that Taylor Swift brings to the market with any new album release. Would this look the same in, say, 12 months’ time? I suspect not.

YouTube Music now lets you search for songs by humming, singing or playing a tune

After about a year of testing, YouTube Music has rolled out a new feature allowing users to search for songs by humming, singing, or playing a tune directly into the app. The sound search feature, accessible through a waveform icon in the search bar, taps into YouTube Music’s catalog of over 100 million official songs to find matches. It’s available to YouTube Music subscribers on iOS and Android.

👆🏻Hot take: not a bad idea, though I’ve not had the upgrade to test it. Certainly curious to see how effective it might be.

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Notable stories from the world of tech:

VP pick J.D. Vance supports Big Tech antitrust crackdown

“Long overdue, but it’s time to break Google up,” Vance tweeted in February, lamenting that “monopolistic control of information in our society resides with an explicitly progressive technology company.” It remains to be seen what a potential second Trump administration would focus on. The conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 policy platform discusses ways conservative causes can be championed by antitrust enforcers, but also questions whether the FTC should continue to exist.

👆🏻Hot take: superficially this feels positive if it means a crackdown on Big Tech…. but when you consider the politics of the guy involved, I’d say it might be a small win being traded for a horrific longer-term loss.

Musk’s X Falls Short on Promises of New Video Shows

Several of the deals X hyped earlier this year have fizzled in the six months since Yaccarino appeared in Vegas. Lemon’s show very publicly fell apart before it ever got started after his very first interview, which was with Musk, went sideways. Gabbard, whose show was supposed to arrive in April, uses X often but hasn’t posted any of the “documentary style videos” that were promised since her deal was announced.

👆🏻Hot take: shock horror! Another X idea crumbles to dust. At this point I tend to just marvel at the hateful waste of energy X has become, and wonder why people spend time there.

Amazon’s AI shopping assistant rolls out to all users in the US

Amazon’s AI shopping assistant, Rufus, is rolling out to all users in the US on Amazon’s mobile app. You can pull up the shopping assistant by tapping the orange and blue icon in the right corner of the app’s navigation bar, where Rufus can answer questions, draw comparisons between items, and give you updates on your order.

👆🏻Hot take: this looks like a potentially smart use of AI, though I can’t help but wonder how something like this might get influenced in future to recommend one product over another. It’s almost like a new take on SEO. AIEO??

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Looking for something else to read? Here you go:

New Portable Cassette Players Transport You Back to the ’80s. But Do You Really Want to Go There?

Would it surprise you to learn that, for some people, a portable cassette player is the answer? The cassette format, introduced in the 1960s, is enjoying a resurgence of its own, and many major pop artists now offer their latest works on cassette.

👆🏻Hot take: whilst I love the idea of people looking beyond streaming to enjoy their music, this new “resurgence” baffles me. Ironically, portable audio is where I’d say DSPs like Spotify really show their strengths. Cassettes were always a pain; poor quality, power-hungry to play back, liable to degradation. Just…. no.

The 50 Best Movie Soundtracks of All Time

From Black Panther to Clueless, Dazed and Confused to Purple Rain, the music that has defined modern filmmaking.

👆🏻Hot take: yes, it’s a lazy listicle of sorts, but as a trip down memory lane (and a gentle reminder of some classics I’d forgotten) this is a fine read.

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