🔵 Universal isn't winning. It is panicking.
Don't believe the hype: the biggest major is far from sitting pretty
I have been reading with interest something of a war break out between differing press outlets, all speculating as to whether Universal’s acquisition of Downtown should be allowed to go through.
Tim Ingham at MBW wrote a particularly spicy take (warning: paywalled), arguing that the acquisition will pass through regulatory checks on the basis Universal is nowhere near market share percentages required to suggest it is a monopoly. His post about this on LinkedIn prompted Sam Taylor from rival industry news site CMU to comment “I hadn’t realised you’d gone full MAGA! Amazing”, which certainly reflected how strong sentiments are on this whole “indies vs majors” or “David vs Goliath” kind of framing, which Universal’s whole move into the indie space has developed into now.
For what it’s worth, I agree with Tim that Downtown’s acquisition will likely pass through regulatory checks, but for slightly different reasons. The Downtown acquisition is largely a B2B one, and so the degree to which it affects consumer choice - which is the main area monopoly regulators are looking at - is arguably more limited. That said, Tim does flag some interesting points about market share and suchlike.
Personally though, I feel all of this is missing perhaps some greater truths around Universal right now. The first is that the entire traditional model of major labels has arguably been killed off. Artists simply have no reason to sign the kind of deals majors used to do, and upon which they built their empires.
In the face of this, all three majors have moved to swallow up the parts of the market that deal with the more favourable artist and label services world, offering compelling, short-term deals. On the basis those deals involve either artists directly or smaller label setups, it tends to be viewed as the dominion of the indie sector.
In recognising the market shift then, it has been paramount that the majors move into this space. Hence AWAL and The Orchard getting bought by Sony, and MTheory, InGrooves, PIAS and more being acquired by Universal, for example.
Alongside this, there is another complicating factor affecting two of the three majors: their shareholders. Sony, very cleverly, does not have this problem as it remains under private ownership, something I think will prove to be a masterstroke in time, especially when one might argue that in AWAL and The Orchard, it made two of the smartest acquisitions in recent times. (I could well believe that between them AWAL and The Orchard are now contributing far, far more to Sony’s bottom line than its frontline labels.) [Correction: Sony Corp is publicly traded, but Sony Music only exists as a subsidiary of that, meaning it not subject to quite the same pressures as Universal and Warner]
Universal and Warners, on the other hand, are now publicly traded companies, and on that basis are very much subject to the demands of shareholders. This is how Universal came to make sweeping redundancies in the last year or so. It was never motivated by losses (i.e. the point when a company would normally make such cutbacks). Quite the opposite: it was simply driven by a desire to push up profits, somewhat masked under “increasing efficiency”.
(A word about those cutbacks: businesses like Universal need to be very, very mindful of the impact such moves have on staff. If redundancies loom all of the time as a tool of increasing efficiency, you might well see significantly lower staff morale, increased brain drain and other recruitment issues creep in. In short: it won’t attract the best people, which is to that company’s cost, and to its competitors’ advantage. Short term win, long term loss.)
Herein lies the issue for Universal: its market share is far from dominant, but it has played almost every card it has now. Short of attempting to buy up the likes of Believe, BMG or perhaps some more indie labels for the catalogue scoop, it is running out of road. What is not running short however, is the endless greed of shareholders, who will continue to demand profits increase and things keep improving, else they will sell up, cratering company value in the process.
This is also why the company’s continued attempt to push the “indie” narrative rings so hollow. Universal is only indie friendly as long as its profits keep rising. The moment that situation changes, operations like PIAS, who are currently able to sit in separate offices, maintaining a facade of being an independent business, will be chopped up for parts.
Ultimately, this isn’t about indies versus majors. I think it is actually much more about whether the music industry wants its market direction to be dictated by shareholders and activist investors like Pershing Square.
There are still very valid questions to answer around Universal’s influence on markets in general, not least its power to affect how everyone is remunerated on platforms like Spotify. In the wider scheme though, this is no longer an “indie vs major” debate and framing it as such is a waste of time.
Perhaps in the context of that, everyone needs to move on from viewing this in that context of how Universal affects the indie sector. That indie sector will thrive and grow - just in ways that most people can’t see just yet. It might sidestep labels altogether, threatening all parties, be they indie or major, but it will adapt and change. Right now the question is much more about how everyone - but especially non-major-controlled businesses - can respond to that with compelling offerings.
Have a great evening,
D.
🎶 Listening to “There Is No Space For Us” by Hawkwind. I was compelled to check this album out after reading this fantastic review over on The Quietus, claiming that the last three Hawkwind albums on Cherry Red are career highlights and eminently worth hearing. On the basis of this album, the reviewer has a point. It is space rock at its finest, and yes, listening to it might well have you reaching for a bong, but I care not a jot: this is a fine album to relax with.
🎶 Also listening to “With A Vengeance” by Sherelle. This album is incredible, veering from rinse-out junglism through to aggressive squatcore-era acid techno. Trust me, if you put this record on whilst walking somewhere, you’ll get there much, much quicker. Incredible.
📺 Watching “The Midlife Crisis of Gen X Explained” on YouTube, in which Bill Burr absolutely tears down a somewhat familiar (to me anyway!) sight of fiftysomething men trying to get all ripped and date women half their age, mostly post-divorce etc. Entirely NSFW and comfortably one of the funniest things I’ve seen in a long while.
🤖 Playing with Chat GPT Deep Research. I’ve not had much reason to use this, until a vicious migraine with aura left me off work for all of last week. I set Deep Research to work, scouring only recognised scientific papers on the topic and providing info on both prescription treatments as well as herbal ones, with links on efficacy etc. Super useful and worth keeping in mind for those tasks where you need an agent to hop across multiple spaces to compile more cogent information summaries.
Recommended reads I’ve enjoyed recently:
I wanted to highlight a few things I’ve really enjoyed reading of late, and whilst this won’t be the news that I’d include previously, I feel it is almost better: articles that really got me thinking, and which I think may do the same for you. Quality over quantity too; I’ve no desire to inundate everyone with links!
you don't need a record deal, you need a community.
“There was a time when bands actually built each other up. When a "scene" wasn't just an aesthetic or a hashtag—it was a real, living thing. A shared apartment. A borrowed amp. A ride to the gig in a van with no AC. Producing each other’s bands and inspiring each other’s art was a way of life.”
Hot take: I loved this piece from Queen Kwong, which echoes my own sentiments shared here in Network Notes that we need a return to scenes and communities.
A Strange Stain in the Sky: How Silicon Valley Is Preparing A Coup Against Democracy
“In the long term, Silicon Valley is also trying to generate maximum distrust of traditional structures and to dismantle the foundations of contemporary states from within, in order to make its alternative more attractive. The best way to destroy democracy is for it to stop working altogether.”
Hot take: this makes for a grim read, and it makes some extreme claims, yet sadly I don’t find myself disagreeing greatly with the points being asserted here. We’re now off script in terms of the nonsense being perpetuated by the likes of Musk et al, and so this kind of outcome does not feel in any way ridiculous, sadly.
The next generation of independent music tastemakers
“As streaming services become more repetitive and automated, music lovers seek magic, personality, and human connection. A new generation of independent music tastemakers are utilizing the tools of influencers to fill the void.”
Hot take: a great piece from Emily White (whose own Substack is well worth subscribing to) outlining this new wave of tastemakers. I still feel we’re seeing this resurgence that will also lend plenty of weight back to PR people who can ensure albums are put in front of these new influencers.
The Internet Isn’t Killing Music Discovery — You’re Just Not Looking in the Right Places
“Music discovery isn’t dead—it’s just changed. The internet gives us more access than ever, but it’s easy to get overwhelmed or stuck in algorithm loops. This post breaks down my favorite platforms for finding new music—SoundCloud, TikTok, YouTube, Bandcamp, and Musicboard—and how to get the most out of each one.”
Hot take: I love posts like this, that favour a constructive take on solving certain problems (such as finding new music) rather than bemoaning the state of affairs. All power to them - more of this please!
Notes & followups in dispatches:
I am going to be in Berlin from the 7th-10th May, to attend Superbooth and generally catch up with all the lovely people I know over there. However if you’re either there already or heading over for Superbooth too and think it’d be good to meet, drop me a line!
Similarly, I’ll be in Brighton for The Great Escape, so same applies there - yell if you fancy meeting whilst in town!
I’m still posting over on Bluesky too, so if you want hot takes on stories as they break etc, follow me over there. 🦋
AWAL & The Orchard (especially the latter) are contributing more to Sony's bottom line than any of their frontline labels.
Thanks for the mention for Sherelle! I couldn’t agree more about that album, whilst it was in production I spent a lot of time running to it!