🔵 Music's Three Paths Forward

Unpicking Keith Jopling's vision for the music industry's future

Hi there -

As I commented in the last edition of Network Notes, it has felt like things have become a little bleak in the music industry. For that reason then, I do love it when I see people taking a positive view, and generally aiming to ask how we can improve things in this industry of ours, rather than simply bemoan the current state of affairs.

Hats off to Keith Jopling then, who published a paper recently entitled “Music’s Three Futures”. (Click to download the PDF). In it, he looks at three ways things are changing, and how that is arguably a good thing.

Given the topic is close to my heart, I wanted to take a look at those three paths, and give my own take on what Keith envisages. So, let’s dive in…

1. Fintech “solves” artist funding

Jopling argues that with the emergence of ventures like Beatbread, securing funding will evolve, and ultimately replace the label funding model.

I am certainly familiar with the likes of Beatbread, and I do think what they’re doing is amazing. It does indeed open up a new approach to artist funding that I think empowers artists all the more in terms of options to bankroll the release of their music.

Does that mean it will replace the existent models?

I am not so sure.

Something I worry about with “pure investment”-type models is that they tend to ignore expertise. Labels, and artist & label services companies, all bring significant expertise to matters.

Take The Orchard, for example. Or Believe to that matter. Both created amazing international offices worldwide, often in territories that - at the time - were not viewed as highly valuable in the grand scheme (LATAM being a case in point).

Ergo, doing a deal with either company brings a level of access to established offices with amazing business relationships in territories you may otherwise struggle to reach.

Money is not everything; business relationships count for a huge amount too, and if as part of your deal you are getting access to all manner of talent with its well-established relationships, then you may well do far better than someone who simply has the cash.

It is a reductive take, I know, but I hope you see my point. Funding for artists is only half the battle; you also need expertise, and whilst some of that can be acquired by hiring agencies, some of it is much more difficult to access.

To be clear though, the ever-increasing ways for artists to get funded is a good thing. It brings more options, and increases competition, and that is only ever a welcome development in my view. So I am in agreement with the author on this one; I just feel there’s a wider, more nuanced angle to it all too.

2. Music Marketing - Frontline & Catalogue Splits Again

This argument, of the three, is the one I have more of an issue with. It is not that the points are wrong; I just don’t agree with some of the assertions in how this will play out.

Jopling argues that “With artists now alternatively funded, they will spend on marketing services from providers of their choice. This means either from (their choice of) record label or from an artist services player, or a marketing agency. But the savvy option is to assemble a team of brilliant freelancers. They could also market themselves through self-serve tools”.

I would argue this has been the case for a long time now. Many, many artists have, via management, secured deals where they are also the label, proceeding to build a team of agencies or freelancers around them to create an agile, almost temporary (on the basis all parties are only retained for the duration of the campaign) label function to execute the campaign.

The next part is arguably where I start to disagree: “Artists making new music don’t need wasteful and ineffective ‘campaigns’. Nobody cares one week later. They need teams to help them build fan clubs. They need smart audience-building tools and pollinating marketing tactics that build their brand listener-by-listener and fan-by-fan.”

Perhaps we are getting into semantics here but I’d argue campaigns are most definitely needed, if only as a logical construct around which to build, well, everything: the narrative, the look, the branding, the entire experience that fans (or fans-to-be) will have.

Ultimately, marketing is not rocket science in its ambitions: the aim is to find audiences, connect with them through as meaningful a manner as possible, and then continue to nurture that relationship. Repeat this cycle successfully and you are building an ever-growing audience who are very invested in you and your work.

Reference is made to marketing tech and other tools to assist in achieving this. Again, I feel those tools and platforms can play a huge role, but they do not run unassisted. One does not simply turn them on and watch the results roll in. This will always, in my view, require human management and control.

It is also why I don’t wholly agree with Jopling’s assertion that labels, faced with increasing redundancy (in his view) to artists, will look to buy up martech platforms. Again, this has happened in the past (cf. Believe buying a smart-linking platform, or Concord buying ad management platform found.ee) but I don’t feel ownership of those amounts to a checkmate for indies or DIY-led artists. Far from it. Those platforms will assist, but they will rarely, if ever, be so essential to the central operation that without them one is hobbled in executing great marketing.

In that regard, the greatest mistake a lot of platforms make as they grow is assuming that they are absolutely irreplaceable. They are not, and history is littered with platforms that were hot for a year or two before someone arrived with a better proposition and, with alarming speed, stole their customers.

Jopling then argues that labels like Sony et al will move to increase their Catalogue ownership, and on that I am in agreement. Whether that will prove a long-term business ‘win’ is another question, but one can certainly see the logic of more IP ownership. Where I think we have a ticking time bomb is in the failure of the industry in general to deliver artists of the scale (and long-term duration) of the likes of the Rolling Stones, or Bob Dylan, or more latterly Michael Jackson, or even Jay Z etc. There’s the likes of Taylor Swift or Ed Sheeran, but those global, enduring superstars are becoming few and farther between, and that in turn means that at some point revenues will start to dry up here. Between that and the shorter-term deals majors are now striking with artists, I’d argue they have some serious cash flow problems incoming over the next ten years.

But I digress… let’s move on to the third and final path.

3. Music Marketing - Commerce Migrates To Communities

Jopling argues that the current state of DSPs, with their AI, algorithms and generally bland approach to discovery et al “makes way for new services that are created to serve and build music scenes and communities. These can offer deeper experiences and selective catalogues more sustainably. For fans, they are ultimately a different experience that makes them feel more connected to the music and artists they appreciate the most.”

On this, I agree with him completely. Look around and you can see people thirsting for a more qualitative connection with artists and their music. Bandcamp, I feel, does a phenomenal job of highlighting all manner of releases I’d otherwise miss, but the way in which that connects through to purchase options which in turn allow a direct connection from artist to fan (via email or in-platform messaging, for example) really showcases how a more valuable relationship can be built.

Of late this “superfan” bon mot has emerged and with any marketing person I talk to, it tends to elicit winces at best, or outraged ranting at worst. The truth is, superfans have always been there, and agencies like mine have worked hard to build those connections and super-serve them for (in our case) 13 years now. So this isn’t something new, but if it causes everyone to focus on that space a little more and recognise the latent potential in that whole segment, then perhaps this is no bad thing.

This quote, from Jopling’s paper, is perhaps the perfect final word on the matter:

”Monetised responsibly, this is the most lucrative and direct way for artists to commercialise their art in the short and medium-term. It’s important that as this era dawns, artists don’t allow the corporate-tech layer to appropriate majority value.”

Amen! On that point, I could not agree more. However as this whole paper serves to brilliantly illustrate, there are options galore out there. That is a wonderful thing, and for me, the final piece of the puzzle to perhaps sort out now is how we move from viewing DSPs as the logical end point for campaigns, and instead establish how to move them back to almost a place of discovery rather than full consumption.

There has to be better ways for fans to feel connected to artists. For me platforms like Bandcamp get closest to achieving that (on the basis they allow direct communication with a fanbase, but also offer great features like listening parties), but that does not mean there aren’t other platforms waiting to be built that could further raise the bar or simply offer more options in the marketplace. This is the nature of competition and it drives innovation.

Right now, arguably, innovation has slowed and the music industry is almost in stasis. I don’t feel AI is offering much in the context of what we’re discussing here. (In other areas? Yes, but here? Nope.) I hope papers like this fine one from Keith will kickstart more conversation about what’s possible and what else we need to do to get there.

For now, I just welcome that speculation and hope we can see more of it. It is positive and constructive and if it is getting us all thinking about what’s possible, that is great. More of that please!

Have a great evening,

D.

🎶 listening to “An EKO In Space” by Wrongtom. What a return!! This EP from Tom had me within about 10 seconds of the first track playing; glorious drum machine crunch, dripping in dub ambience, as a catchy melody and thick bassline rumble through. It’s a total delight that I’ve had on repeat all day. What a way to be ending 2024. Hoping from here we see even more from Tom in the new year.

📺 watching “Scapeshift Generative Groove Box: First Look” on YouTube. Tim Exile has, I think it’s safe to say, had one of the hardest years of his life, so to see him returning to one of his biggest passions - creating inspiring, original music software - is truly heartwarming. Sentiments aside, he has also created something genuinely new and different, which is no mean feat in the music production space in 2024. I can’t wait to get my hands on this and start messing around; it looks incredible.

🤖 playing with AntiPlaylist. “Our AI maps musical universes across diverse genres, serving up personalized sonic adventures that expand your auditory world. Break free from repetitive playlists,” the blurb says. Basically this is a reaction to the rather dull algorithms of DSPs and their abject failure in throwing you a complete curveball. So, if you fancy just landing on something utterly wild you never thought you’d hear, this might be the site for you.

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Notes In Dispatches:

• Happy to confirm that I am still going to be at Music Ally’s Connected event in Jan, so I hope to see some of you there. A word on this, if I may: I have to give much respect to the team at Music Ally who responded to my criticisms of their Campaigns of the Year, and which has led to some healthy debate since without ever descending into the kind of polemical nonsense one might expect on social platforms. Honestly I think a lot of places would simply shout “screw that guy!” and pull me from the event, but they have done no such thing. That’s both admirable, and a sign of their integrity. Fair play 🙏🏻

• I joined Scuba on his excellent “Not A Diving Podcast” podcast in an episode that will be released next Tuesday, the 17th. Another episode went up last week, chatting with Detroit legend Kevin Saunderson, so be sure to take a listen as that’s another gem if like me you love your techno.

• The next edition of Network Notes will be another guest article! I’m really excited about this one, and feel it will prompt some really positive debate about the UK music scene in particular. Right now the plan is to send that on Weds so do keep an eye out.

• We will also be doing a “Revisiting Our Most-Read Articles of 2024” piece that should go out next week, where I’ll be rounding up the most popular pieces through this year, with a bit more reflection on them (and in some cases, the fallout that occurred after they went out).

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